Arizona Home Buying

January 2012 Market Report

2012-01-25T10:47:00.000-08:00

January 2012 Market Report

Uncertainty because it is difficult, if not impossible, to have a clear picture of today’s market. National and even regional news only report on the big picture. And while the big picture matters to overall market confidence and conditions, to borrow from the old adage, all real estate is local. So what’s really going on in your neighborhood?

In order to provide the most accurate data, Joseph D’Ambrosio (Arizona Luxury Home Buying) has partnered with The Cromford Report, a market research and analysis firm. We zeroed in specifically on luxury homes in the Northeast Valley to get a clear picture of what’s happening here in town.
When looking at Cromford’s numbers it becomes apparent that the supply of luxury homes is still increasing but at a slower rate than in the previous two months. An increased inventory isn’t necessarily a bad thing, with the annual sales volume also seeing an increase over last year. Pending sales are lower than they were at the end of last year. Normally this wouldn’t be very encouraging, but it is a result of there being fewer short sales on the market which are tracked as pending – sometimes for months on end.
In other “Optimism, 2012” news, pricing for active listings is surprisingly robust with an increased price per square foot up 3.2% over last year. However, when looking at pending sales the price per square foot is down, and the annual average price per square foot has a slight uptick from a year ago to close out the year. Before calling it a come-back I’d really like to see pending and sales prices increase along with active listing prices. One last spark of good news is the improved contract ratios seen in certain areas, especially Arcadia and the McCormick and Gainey Ranch areas. Completed contracts compared to the number of active listings and are a good way to measure “what’s hot”. The slight dip across the luxury market last quarter is typical market activity over the summer and into fall. Compared to 2010 and especially 2008 and 2009, there is reason to be hopeful.

Long term, there are so many external variables effecting housing. As a major component of the ‘08 crash, the housing market’s machinations are continuously under the microscope for signs of recovery – with external variables perhaps having undue influence on people’s perception of things. The uncertainty of an election year can impact business investment and personal economic decisions, and this should not be over looked when considering housing. November, while it may seem far in the future, will likely be a good indicator of what’s to come.
Hopefully this helped shed some light on the uncertainties in our market and provided a little peace of mind. If you would like further or more detailed analysis of your specific property, please call our office today.

"Opening The Door To Opportunity and Your Future Home..."

Joseph D'Ambrosio

Executive Sales Associate

Keller Williams Northeast Reality

2005 W. Happy Valley Road Ste 150
Phoenix, AZ, 85027

Cell: 623-810-4824

Email: joseph.dambrosio@kw.com

Website: www.Arizona-HomeBuying.com

Website: www.Arizona-HomeBuying.kwrealty.com

Home For Sale in ADOBE MOUNTAIN ESTATES

2011-10-21T11:04:00.001-07:00

Adobe Mountain Estates: Visual shows :: 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, Home for Sale in
ADOBE MOUNTAIN ESTATES

Not a SHORT SALE or BANK OWNED.
Great 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Home

** NEW CARPET, NEW PAINT INSIDE & OUT, VAULTED CEILINGS, CEILING FANS,
NEW ROOF IN 09, READY FOR YOUR BUYERS TO MOVE RIGHT IN**

**LIGHT AND BRIGHT*LARGE POOL SIZE YARD WITH RV GATE * CORNER
LOT*EAT-IN KITCHEN* FAMILY ROOM +LIVING ROOM**

This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, Home for Sale in
ADOBE MOUNTAIN ESTATES was
Meticulously maintained by owners.
Home comes with AHS Home Warranty.

8 Tips To Help Guide You In Your Home Search.

2011-10-12T11:27:00.000-07:00

1. Research before you look. Decide what features you most want to have in a home, what neighborhoods you prefer, and how much you’d be willing to spend each month for housing and get prequalified for a mortgage. This will save you the heartache later of falling in love with a house you can’t afford.

2. Be realistic. It’s OK to be picky, but don’t be unrealistic with your expectations. There’s no such thing as a perfect home. Use your list of priorities as a guide to evaluate each property.

3. Get your finances in order. Review your credit report and be sure you have enough money to cover your down payment and closing costs. Then, talk to a lender
( Jeffrey Arnstein Branch manager at VanDyk Mortgage Corp.)

4. Don’t ask too many people for opinions. It will drive you crazy. Select one or two people to turn to if you feel you need a second opinion, but be ready to make the final decision on your own.

5. Decide your moving timeline. When is your lease up? Are you allowed to sublet? How tight is the rental market in your area? All of these factors will help you determine when you should move.

6. Think long term. Are you looking for a starter house with plans to move up in a few years, or do you hope to stay in this home for a longer period? This decision may dictate what type of home you’ll buy as well as the type of mortgage terms that will best suit you.

7. Insist on a home inspection. If possible, get a warranty from the seller to cover defects for one year.

8. Get help from a REALTOR®. Hire Joseph D’Ambrosio who specializes in buyer representation. Unlike a listing agent, whose first duty is to the seller, a buyer’s representative is working only for you. Buyer’s reps are usually paid out of the seller’s commission payment.

"Opening The Door To Opportunity and Your Future Home..."

Jeffrey Arnstein Joseph D'Ambrosio

Branch Manager Executive Sales Associate

VanDyk Mortgage Corporation Keller Williams Northeast Reality

3923 S McClintock DR Suite 408 21410 N. 19th Ave #131

Tempe, AZ 85282 Phoenix, AZ, 85027

NMLS # 157746 Cell: 623-810-4824

AZ LO ID # 912005 Email: joseph.dambrosio@kw.com

BKBR 0115143 Website: www.Arizona-HomeBuying.com

(480) 621-4542 Website: www.Arizona-HomeBuying.kwrealty.com
jarnstein458@vandykmortgage.com

Home For Sale in Moonlight Cove, Phoenix AZ

2011-09-21T13:19:00.000-07:00

Home For Sale in Moonlight Cove, Phoenix AZ: Visual shows :: This Home For Sale in Moonlight Cove, Phoenix, AZ. Fantastic
Opportunity at a Great Price!! This 4 Bedroom 2 Bath has a great floor
plan and many upgrades. MOST OF ALL IT’S MOVE-IN READY…

Formal Living Room & Dinning Room, and Large Family Room, Kitchen with
Black Appliances. Tile floors and Carpet flooring in all the right
places.

Enjoy the Sliding Doors that open to the covered patio, Real Grass
landscaped Backyard sit and enjoy... This Home For Sale in Moonlight
Cove, Phoenix, AZ.

The American Dream Lives On – Who’s dreaming about working with you?

2011-09-20T14:41:00.000-07:00

The American Dream Lives On – Who’s dreaming about working with you?
Guess who’s coming to the closing table? Survey says more 18-34 year-olds than you’d think. And there were a few other surprises…

Amidst reports of economic woes, fluctuating job growth, and America’s changing housing market research shows the American dream is still very much in tact. This morning we released results from Trulia’s American Dream Survey, which bi-annually measures the attitudes of Americans on home ownership. The results show the majority of American adults, no matter what age, view home ownership as a part of the personal dream. But the real delight for agents is in the details.

80 percent see a house on the horizon…

Research showed that 80 percent of respondents surveyed where planning at least one additional home purchase in their lifetime. While all of these buyers aren’t actively searching, this is some much-needed positive news for agents looking to for ways to build their business.

It’s great news for professionals like Sarah Stelmok, Associate Broker with Champion Homes Realty in Fredericksburg, Va. who believes, “It’s inevitable that people will purchase. Real estate will always be one of the best investments there is.” Stelmok started her real estate business in 2004 and has been building it during one of the most dynamic real estate seasons ever.

Gen Next dreams of surviving the slump

Shaped by tragedies like September 11, 2001, Hurricane Katrina, and one of the most dramatic housing and economic slumps in history, many questioned: would the “American dream” survive for the Generations the Pew Research Institute calls “Millenials,” “Y,” and “Nexters?”

Research shows the answer is yes. Around 65 percent of respondents from age 18 to 34 said home ownership is still part of their American dream. While the group echoed the larger sentiment of concerns over down payment, qualifying for a mortgage, and job stability, the homeowner hopefuls still outnumber the unsure and ownership naysayers by almost 2:1.

Where does the next buyer want to live?

Survey results showed, across the board the suburban McMansion trend of the housing boom is dying a quick death. Only 6 percent of those surveyed said their ideal home size is more than 3,200 square feet – a 36.6 percent decrease from 9 percent in 2010. In addition, both Baby Boomers (55+) and responders in the 18 – 34 age category expressed their primary interest in urban environments for different reasons. The older group wanting to be closer to shops and restaurants and the younger generation being interested in shorter commutes.

The Looming Question: What’s will happen to suburbia?

According to Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist, “The homes that people will want in the future will look different than today’s housing stock.” With research showing the next influx of owners (who still have to overcome some important hurdles like questionable credit and drumming up down payments) showing interest in urban environments, what happens to the many McMansion villages across the U.S.? Tell us what you think.

About the Survey

The Trulia biannual American Dream survey has tracked American attitudes towards homeownership since 2009. This most recent survey was conducted online between August 30th and September 1st 2011 among 2,207 adults (aged 18 and over) by Harris Interactive on behalf of Trulia. Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income are taken into account and weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the U.S. population.

For More on the Survey:

· To download an infographic illustrating the above findings, click here.

· To view a slideshow of the findings, click here.

· To listen to a replay of Trulia’s Chief Economist Jed Kolko discussing the results of the survey and other insights into the real estate market (available after 9/20), click here.

· To check out Trulia’s current and archived industry reports and consumer surveys, click here.

About the author

Jovan Hackley

Jovan Hackley is a Content Marketing Manager for Trulia. Jovan works with Agents and Brokers to help them build their businesses.

Homes For Sale in Sonoran Foothils

2011-09-17T13:24:00.000-07:00

Homes For Sale in Sonoran Foothils: Visual shows :: Home for Sale in Sonoran Foothills, Phoenix Arizona.
Fantastic Opportunity at a Great Price! Huge 3 bedroom/ 3.5 bath plus
den home located in the popular North Phoenix neighborhood of Sonoran
Foothills. This Home for Sale features a fantastic floor plan and
makes great use of its space. This Home for Sale is well appointed,
has numerous upgrades and is move-in ready. Kitchen features granite
countertops, upgraded cabinets and stainless steel appliances. The
backyard is amazing and is an entertainer s dream! Terrific location
in North Phoenix neighborhood of Sonoran Foothills with close
proximity to Valley freeways and all the Norterra attractions.
Information deemed reliable Buyer to verify all material facts
including schools, HOA, permitted work and sewer connection.

Wells Fargo or Wachovia Corporation employees, its affiliates or
subsidiaries and their immediate family members not eligible to
purchase

15 Reasons I'm the Real Estate Agent for You!

2011-09-14T16:39:00.000-07:00

• I have a total commitment to providing excellent service throughout the real estate transaction.

• I have exceptional knowledge of the local Anthem, Northwest Valley, North Phoenix, Desert Ridge Area, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and surrounding Maricopa County, AZ areas real estate market.

• As a real estate professional, I will be committed to negotiating on your behalf to help meet your specific goals and objectives.

• I will engage in a comprehensive networking strategy to assist in the purchase or sale of your home.

• I will go the extra mile for you to make sure your next real estate transaction is a smooth one.

• I take pride in providing personalized service which means that I will be highly involved in the actual purchase or sale or your home.

• I will utilize technology to better meet your specific real estate needs, whether you are buying or selling.

• I will take on the difficult tasks to make moving an easy process.

• I will assist you in finding the related services that are necessary to buy or sell a home or other property.

• I will keep you apprised of current local real estate market conditions that can impact the purchase or sale of your home.

• I engage in a corporate level of marketing to make sure that your home gets as much exposure as possible if you are a seller and that you find the perfect home if you are a buyer.

• I work as a full time real estate professional which means you will have the pinnacle of support throughout your real estate transaction.

• I will utilize my experience both in and out of real estate to let you attend to your family while I do the work making sure your real estate transaction is processed in the most trouble free manner possible.

• I will respect your time and work with you so your busy schedule is not interrupted.

• I will uphold the highest moral and ethical standards throughout any real estate transaction I am involved in.

Anthem Conrty Club Homes for Sale

2011-09-14T14:24:00.000-07:00

Refinance Your Mortgage: When and Why

2011-09-12T14:18:00.000-07:00

During a time when money matters and interest rates charged on new mortgages are at 60-year lows, a question the government wants every homeowner to consider is “Should I refinance my mortgage?”
Before answering this question, determine what you intend to accomplish by refinancing:

• Reduce your monthly payments?
Low interest rates, as well as a longer payback period, achieve this goal.
You will have more money monthly to spend on goods and services.

• Switch from adjustable to FRM financing?
A fixed interest rate provides long-term stability for home ownership.
This is best done when interest rates are low.

• Cash out your equity?
Consolidate debt to reduce interest charges and payments.

• Fund home improvements?
Add a pool, redecorate or make energy efficiency improvements.

After determining what you want out of a refinance, consider whether a refinance of your existing mortgage is a wise move. Periods of low interest rates are ideal for most refinancing situations. However, refinancing just because rates are lower than the rate on your existing mortgage is not always in your best short-term financial interest. Consider avoiding refinancing when:

• you plan to sell your house within five years;

• a prepayment penalty will be incurred on paying off your existing mortgage;

• your refinancing will require the payment of mortgage insurance premiums (MIPs); or

• the balance due on your existing mortgage exceeds the present value of your home by 10% or more, a refinancing also called a loan modification.

Plan ahead! When refinancing — or when getting any mortgage financing — negotiate the removal of the boilerplate due-on-sale clause from the trust deed your lender is using. Also, consider the tax aspects of interest deductions on extending your loan payoff period (amortization).

A calculator which shows homeowners what their potential monthly savings can be by refinancing their mortgage is available at http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/mortgages/refinance-calculator.aspx. Discover for yourself whether or not a refinance is a prudent move to make.

For assistance in the selection of the best refinancing options available to you, Mortgage Questions or needs contact Jeff Armstein or Real Estate Questions or Needs contact Joseph D'Ambrosio at the number below,
"Opening The Door To Opportunity and Your Future Home..."

Jeffrey Arnstein Joseph D'Ambrosio

Branch Manager Executive Sales Associate

VanDyk Mortgage Corporation Keller Williams Northeast Reality

3923 S McClintock DR Suite 408 21410 N. 19th Ave #131

Tempe, AZ 85282 Phoenix, AZ, 85027

NMLS # 157746 Cell: 623-810-4824

AZ LO ID # 912005 Email: joseph.dambrosio@kw.com

BKBR 0115143 Website: www.Arizona-HomeBuying.com

(480) 621-4542 Website: www.Arizona-HomeBuying.kwrealty.com

jarnstein458@vandykmortgage.com

Homes For Sale (Bank Owned / REO)$115,000 and UP in Anthem, Anthem Parkside, Anthem Country Club

2011-09-07T12:18:00.000-07:00

What’s in your FICO® score

2011-09-07T11:58:00.000-07:00

FICO Scores are calculated from a lot of different credit data in your credit report. This data can be grouped into five categories as outlined below. The percentages in the chart reflect how important each of the categories is in determining your FICO score.

35% - Payment History
30% - Amounts Owed
15% - Length of Credit History
10% - New Credit
10% - Types of Credit Used

Credit is an important factor in purchasing a home and these figures are something to keep in mind when thinking of making the next step into homeownership.

WE HAVE MOVED TO GREAT NEW LOCATION !

2011-09-02T08:18:00.000-07:00

Hi Everyone! Great news we have Move our office to a Great New Location to better serve you. Here is the new location. 2005 W. Happy Valley Rd #150, Phoenix, AZ 85085. When you need to buy or sell stop on by and see me. Looking forward to helping you with your needs.

The Latest Mortgage Information after this S&P downgrade. Part 2

2011-08-10T18:34:00.000-07:00

The Latest Mortgage Information after this S&P downgrade Part 2, What does this mean to the current Real Estate market? I asked my friend and mortgage guru Jeffrey Arnstein Branch Manager of VanDyk Mortgage Corporation located in Tempe, Arizona this question and here is what he had to say. This is Part 2 to the question.

Much has happened in the past few months that have resulted in one of the most volatile and unpredictable periods of mortgage interest rate and price fluctuation. But now their appears to be a solid trend to lower interest rates for quite some time to come. I think!

On the heels of the protracted debate in congress about the debt/budget situation and the uncertainty that went along with that debate, followed by an agreement that was signed by the President on August 2, 2011, followed by the surprise S & P downgrade of US debt from AAA to AA+, as well as Fannie and Freddie, followed by a sell off in the European markets prompted by fears among investors that some European Counties’ debt will be downgraded to “junk” – on August 9, 2011, the Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) of the Federal reserve released their observations and plans for the future of the Federal Funds Rate, which is generally defined as the interest rate at which banks may borrow funds from the Federal Reserve.

The sum and substance of these remarks were as follows:

Unemployment has not improved;
Consumer spending and confidence has not increased;
Overall investment is weak;
Housing is still sluggish;
Economic recovery will go much slower than previously anticipated; and
Only small improvements in unemployment rates will be seen over the next several quarters.

Accordingly, to promote and strengthen the pace of recovery, the FOMC announced its intention to keep the Federal Funds Rate exceptionally low (between 0 and ¼ percent) through mid 2013. I have personally never seen such a long term commitment to interest rate levels from the Fed, and I question whether or not there was some politics involved in issuing this statement.

Nevertheless, it would appear that the FOMC is intending to foster a lending environment to stimulate investment and thus the economy, which means lower rates across the board for the foreseeable future. And this means that we should see low mortgage interest rates for at least another 6 months, if not longer.

And when I say low rates, I mean all time lows.

So, these all time record low interest rates, combined with all time lows in home prices, not only in metro Phoenix, but all over the country means housing has never been more affordable.

I would caution those who still want to “wait to see” that even with these statements by the Fed, the economy is very unpredictable and mortgage rates may rise, despite the Fed’s best intention to keep them down for a myriad of reasons.

It is my experience that when we try to “time the market”, we as consumers guess wrong and loose 90% of the time. Therefore, take advantage of this “perfect storm” of price and rate now before this window closes. Now is the time to contact your realtor to start the home buying process. You will never get a better deal than you will right now.

And when you do find a home, we have a wide selection of mortgage products to suit your needs from FHA, VA, to conventional. Many of these mortgage products involve little, if nothing down, and your realtor can generally negotiate a substantial contribution from the seller to cover most if not all of the closing costs.

For Mortgage Questions or needs contact Jeff Armstein or Real Estate Questions or Needs contact Joseph D'Ambrosio at the number below,

"Opening The Door To Opportunity and Your Future Home..."

Jeffrey Arnstein Joseph D'Ambrosio

Branch Manager Executive Sales Associate

VanDyk Mortgage Corporation Keller Williams Northeast Reality

3923 S McClintock DR Suite 408 21410 N. 19th Ave #131

Tempe, AZ 85282 Phoenix, AZ, 85027

NMLS # 157746 Cell: 623-810-4824

AZ LO ID # 912005 Email: joseph.dambrosio@kw.com

BKBR 0115143 Website: www.Arizona-HomeBuying.com

(480) 621-4542 Website: www.Arizona-HomeBuying.kwrealty.com

jarnstein458@vandykmortgage.com

Should you Rent or Buy a Home?

2011-08-09T13:12:00.000-07:00

Should you Rent or Buy a Home?

Should you Rent or Buy a Home? It is cheaper to pay rent on a single family home or pay a mortgage on a single family home?

This article compares the average monthly rent paid for a rental compared to how much the mortgage payment might be to purchase an average priced single family home in greater Phoenix area.

The average single family Home rental rate is $1,380 and average single family purchase price is $189,700.00 as of August 8, 2011 for Greater Phoenix. (This information is available from Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc.) (2100Sqft. Home, 3-4 Bedrooms, 2-3 baths, with 2 car garage, with or without a pool.)

Now, if we look at a FHA 3.5% down loan, fixed rate of 4.25% for 30yrs at a purchase price of $189,700 the monthly payment with principle, interest and mortgage insurance (M.I.P.), would be $1075.00. Granted, we have to consider taxes and homeowners insurance; additional cost of 195.00 to $1075.00 = $1,270.00 That’s a savings of $110.00 per month, and a total savings of $1,320.00 per year. What could you do with an extra $1,320.00 per year? Now how do you feel about “Should you Rent or Buy a Single Family Home?”

One benefit of owning is tax deductions. If a home owner itemizes on their federal tax return they may take a tax deduction for the annual mortgage interest paid and annual property taxes paid.

Possible Tax deduction for above scenario

$7,776.00 mortgage interest paid first year on loan, plus $1,656.00 in property taxes paid the first year=$9,432.00 x 22% federal tax rate=$2,075.00 tax deduction.

(The actual tax rate will vary according to the owner’s income and is only an estimate for this scenario.)

$2,075.00 may be deducted from federal taxes.
$2,075.00 divided by twelve months is $172.92
$1,098.08 Effective monthly mortgage payment if owner itemizes and able to take deductions. $1,271-172.92=1,098.08

$281.92 Less than paying $1,380.00 in rent.

You can also think of it this way over 5 years of paying rent $1380 x 60 months = $82,800 and you own nothing.

Where as $82,800 is used towards Home Ownership

***(PLEASE CONSULT A CPA ON TAX INFORMATION)***

Conclusion:

Should you Rent or Buy a Home?

While there are many reasons to rent or buy; this article compares the average monthly rental amount paid for a single family home in Greater Phoenix compared to the amount of a monthly mortgage payment using a scenario to purchase the average priced single family home in Greater Phoenix. If analyzed only by the amount of the monthly payment buying trumps renting in the example given.

If you’re thinking about buying or renting, please call me for more information.

"Opening The Door To Opportunity and Your Future Home..."

Thank you
Joseph D'Ambrosio
Joseph D'Ambrosio                             Cell: 623-810-4824
Executive Sales Associate                  Fax: 623-399-9832
Keller Williams Northeast Reality      Email: joseph.dambrosio@kw.com

Direct: 623-399-9949 x34 Website: www.Arizona-HomeBuying.com
Website: www.Arizona-HomeBuying.kwrealty.com

The Latest Mortgage Information after this S&P downgrade.

2011-08-09T11:36:00.000-07:00

The Latest Mortgage Information after this S&P downgrade, What does this mean to the current Real Estate market? I asked my friend and mortgage guru Jeffrey Arnstein Branch Manager of VanDyk Mortgage Corporation located in Tempe, Arizona this question and here is what he had to say.

"After much speculation that the interest rates for mortgages and other consumer debt would sharply rise as a result of the recent S&P downgrade, it now appears that this will not be the case. Despite the S&P downgrade, most investors still think that the creditworthiness of the United States is beyond question or doubt. And as long as US debt instruments like Treasury Bills are in demand, and appear to generate a better return than most equities (stocks) which they are, the rates will remain low. That’s good news in the short run for mortgage interest rates. These all time record low interest rates, combined with all time lows in home prices; not only in metro Phoenix, but all over the country means housing has never been more affordable. But as sure as I’m writing this, the rates will eventually rise, so take advantage of this “perfect storm” of price and rate now before this window closes. Now is the time to contact your realtor to start the home buying process. You will never get a better deal than you will right now."

For Mortgage Questions or needs contact Jeff Armstein or Real Estate Questions or Needs contact Joseph D'Ambrosio at the number below,

"Opening The Door To Opportunity and Your Future Home..."

Jeffrey Arnstein Joseph D'Ambrosio

Branch Manager Executive Sales Associate

VanDyk Mortgage Corporation Keller Williams Northeast Reality

3923 S McClintock DR Suite 408 21410 N. 19th Ave #131

Tempe, AZ 85282 Phoenix, AZ, 85027

NMLS # 157746 Cell: 623-810-4824

AZ LO ID # 912005 Email: joseph.dambrosio@kw.com

BKBR 0115143 Website: www.Arizona-HomeBuying.com

(480) 621-4542 Website: www.Arizona-HomeBuying.kwrealty.com

jarnstein458@vandykmortgage.com

March 29, 2011 News You Should Know-"Marketing Indicators Signaling Another Turnaround"

2011-03-29T16:40:00.001-07:00

Read the positive article below, "Marketing Indicators Signaling Another Turnaround" and then pass it on! We are now down to 4.5 months of supply as of today! Don't be the last agent to let your clients know!!!! Now is the time to buy!

"Marketing Indicators Signaling Another Turnaround"

Mike Orr, The Cromford Report, March 17, 2011

Almost all the key market indicators turned negative at the end of the second quarter of 2010, and thus predicted the fall in pricing we experienced during the second half of the year. See our News Archive (on the Cromford Report) for the warnings we issued in June and July 2010.

The good news is that now we are seeing the opposite happen. Those same market indicators are turning positive, suggesting we are likely to see prices strengthen over the next six to nine months.

It is generally regarded as very tricky to call a market bottom (or top) at the time it is happening, but real estate is a relatively slow-changing market and several key indicators give us fair warning if we choose the right ones and track them on a daily basis. The indicators we like are:

1. The Cromford Market Index™ - This has been over 100 since late December and around 110 since January 23. Click here for the graph! 2. Days Inventory - Has been falling steeply since November 21, a strong signal that supply is tightening and getting even stronger since January. Click here for the graph!

3. Pending Listing Count - Grown from 8,695 on January 2 to 12,993 on March 16, indicating plenty of buying interest. Click here for the graph!

4. Contract Ratio - Having dropped to 38 at the beginning of January, has increased sharply to over 62 by mid March. This again confirms a strong swing in the balance away from supply and towards demand. This swing applies to REOs, short sales and normal listings. Click here for the graph!

5. Monthly Sales Volume - Weak during the second half of 2010, this suddenly strengthened in December 2010 and has been well above last year through the first quarter of 2011.

6. Listing Success Rate - Has jumped from 58% in February to 65% now. Click here for the graph!

7. Sales Price as a Percentage of List Price - The low point was 94.23% on December 31. We have now improved to 95.37%.

There are two important measures that have not made much progress yet - Pending $/SF and Monthly Sales $/SF. That is because pricing is always the last thing to turn round. Currently the low points are $81.55 for pending sales on March 10th and $80.60 for monthly sales on February 22. We can now see both of these edging tentatively upwards. We do not expect dramatic rises, but we believe the price weakness experienced between June 2010 and March 2011 is all but dissipated. If we do see further dips they are likely to be small and short term affairs.

We have already seen two low points for monthly sales $/SF - April 6, 2009 and February 22, 2011. We may see more yet, but based on today's trends this is fairly unlikely in the short term. Barring unforeseen catastrophe or significant external events (e.g. government action) we appear to have started the second upward leg of our W shaped recovery. Hopefully we are going to get a W shaped recovery and not experience a VW shaped one!

Nothing is certain in this world. So if this current trend weakens or fails to follow through - you can sure we will be the first to inform you in the News and Commentary section of the Cromford Report. We recommend that you use the RSS feed for that section so you get early notice of any new entries. If instead the current trend strengthens as we expect, then our confidence in the above market indicators will be even greater in the future.

Use the Cromford Report!

The Cromford Report is an excellent source of information! There is an amazing amount of statistics, graphs and charts to help you, the agent, explain the market to your clients! You can use the info at listing appointments, when sitting open houses, to encourage your buyers to get off the fence, and in your email/newsletter campaigns! If you don't know how to utilize this Free-To-You tool, please contact me! I'll show you how to log in and some charts that I find to be useful!